GovWire

This is a list of the business critical models used by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and its arms length bodies (ALBs) as at December 2024.

In October 2012, Sir Bob Kerslake and Sir Jeremy Heywood commissioned a review of the quality assurance of analytical models that inform policy across government.

The review was led by Sir Nick Macpherson, Permanent Secretary at the Treasury. In March 2013, he published his review of quality assurance of government models.

The Aqua Book, published in 2015, provided high-level guidance to meet the Macpherson review recommendations.

Recommendation 4 of the review asked departments to make a list of their business critical models publicly available - to encourage good practice in their quality assurance.

In 2022, the National Audit Office report, Financial modelling in government, re-emphasised the importance of these lists. In October 2023, an addendum to the Aqua Book was published to provide departments with clear principles to follow for the publication of models.