GovWire

Following a rise in unconditional university offers between 2013 and 2019 (University and College Admissions Service [UCAS], 2019), Ofqual conducted research to consider the potential impact of unconditional offers on students A level attainment. Unconditional offers made prior to students sitting their A levels allow students access to a given degree course regardless of their A level results. Given that students receiving and accepting such offers might be less motivated to perform in their A level exams, we wanted to explore whether there were any implications for students A level attainment.

The research draws on data from 2017 and 2018 when there were large increases in the number of unconditional offers, and was conducted prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. The research was also conducted prior to the Department for Education (DfE, 2021) consulting on possible changes to the admissions system to higher education in England; the Office for Students (OfS, 2020a) banning certain types of unconditional offers for a period during the pandemic; Universities UK publishing a code of practice for fair admissions that discourages institutions from making certain types of unconditional offers in particular circumstances (UUK, 2022); and the number of unconditional offers declining since 2020 (UCAS, 2023). While the context has therefore changed considerably, our findings provide evidence relating to the potential impact of unconditional offers on students A level attainment, that can contribute to any future debate about the system of university admissions in England.

The research considers the potential impact of unconditional offers on students A level attainment focusing on overall attainment (across 3 subjects), as well as attainment in a selection of A level subjects (art and design, biology, business, mathematics and psychology). To provide further context to our findings, we also consider the factors influencing unconditional offer making. We consider this from 2 different perspectives: the perspective of students and the perspective of individual offers. The former considers the factors that influence whether an individual student receives an unconditional offer, and the latter considers the factors that may influence whether an individual offer is unconditional. The research focuses on typical A level students students who sat 3 A levels at the end of Year 13 applying to university through the main UCAS scheme. We use data from both 2017 and 2018 to consider possible changes over time as the proportion of students receiving unconditional offers increased.

We found that, when controlling for student background characteristics that are linked to A level performance, there is a relationship between accepting an unconditional offer as a firm choice and overall A level attainment. A student holding an unconditional offer as a firm choice achieves, on average, between half and three quarters of a grade lower across their 3 A levels than a student not holding an unconditional offer as a firm choice (that is, up to around a quarter of a grade per subject). Furthermore, while the findings were mixed at the individual subject level, in general, a student holding an unconditional offer as a firm choice tended to perform worse than a student not holding an unconditional offer as a firm choice.

Our analyses also show that, when controlling for student background characteristics, the likelihood of a student receiving an unconditional offer was higher in 2018 than 2017. Students studying expressive subjects at A level (for example, art and design) were more likely to receive an unconditional offer, and students studying STEM subjects were less likely to receive an unconditional offer, when compared to those studying applied subjects (for example, business). We also found that an offer was more likely to be unconditional when the application was to a lower tariff university, and the likelihood of an offer being unconditional varied across degree subject areas. For example, applications to maths, medical and veterinary science related subjects were less likely to receive an unconditional offer than applications to engineering subjects.