GovWire

Today, Ofqual has publishedequalities analysis for the qualification results issued in summer 2024. Ofqual has conducted this analysis every year since 2020 to monitor how attainment gaps for students with different characteristics (some of which are protected) and of different socio-economic status vary over time.

As inprevious years, this analysis focuses on GCSE, A level, and those vocational and technical qualifications that are taken alongside or instead of GCSEs and A levels in schools and colleges. The Department for Education (DfE) has recently published statistics onattainment of students at Key Stage 4and for16- to 18-year-olds.Ofquals analysis provides further insights on how attainment gaps have changed in recent years.

This analysis explores how the results for different groups of students have changed over time, when controlling for other variables, through a common statistical technique called multivariate regression modelling. This allows us to measure the impact of each student characteristic on qualification outcomes once all others have been held constant, rather than looking purely at more simple breakdowns of results by student characteristics. For example, we can compare the results of 2 different ethnic groups, without differences in their overall prior attainment or socio-demographic make-up affecting the findings.

The student characteristics we considered are:

• prior attainment
• ethnicity
• gender
• special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) status
• free school meal eligibility
• socio-economic status (using the Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index [IDACI])
• first language (GCSE and A level only)
• region (GCSE and A level only)
• the type of school or college attended (GCSE and A level only)

The findings are presented as an interactive report so that users can more easily navigate them and focus on the results that they are interested in.

In interpreting the results of this analysis, it is important to remember that exams and other formal assessments should not be considered the cause of attainment gaps. Indeed, an important feature of exams and formal assessments is that the rules are the same for all, so that students have the same opportunity to demonstratewhat they know, understand and can do. The findings of this analysis should not be interpreted as an indication that the assessments do not function for a particular group of students. Rather, the findings of this analysis are likely toreflect societal differences and other factors, such as the residual impact of the pandemic on teaching and learning on different groups of students.

This is why the analysis looks atchanges in attainment gaps, not just at existing attainment gaps, which have existed for some time. The analysis identifies notable changes: those changes that we believe go beyond normal year-on-year variation.

The data for the period 2018 to 2024 is included in this analysis. Attainment gapsin 2024 results are compared with 2023, sincegrading continued as normal in summer 2024 following the return to pre-pandemic standards in summer 2023.

Main findings

Firstly, the modelled attainment gaps (that show the impact of each student characteristic while controlling for other factors) are always different in size to the raw comparisons (based on the raw breakdowns of results by student characteristics). The modelled attainment gaps tend to be smaller than the raw comparisons. This is an important result, not only because it indicates that there is an interplay between different student characteristics (for example, ethnicity and first language), but also because it shows how simple breakdowns can be misleading.

Secondly, of the many different comparisons between groups of students, the majority showed no notable change in attainment gaps in 2024. When controlling for other variables, attainment gaps are still there, but in most cases, they have not changed notably since 2023. When there has been a notable change, the gap has sometimes narrowed but in some cases widened; these are explained further below.

The term notable is used here and throughout the reported analysis. The use of this term differs from common usage and is used to identify changes based on both technical statistical significance and those outside normal between-year fluctuations. Itis not intended to convey any judgement of the importance of the change.

The patterns are different for GCSE, A level, and vocational and technical qualifications. Below we draw out the notable changes in modelled attainment gaps, once other variables are controlled for.

GCSE

At GCSE, the analysis looked at gaps across 3 outcome measures: average grade, the probability of attaining a grade 4, and the probability of attaining a grade 7.

This year, the analysis identified notable changes on all 3 criteria in relation to some (self-reported) school or college types. Specifically, students in the independent schools category had higher outcomes than students in academiesin both 2024 and in 2023, and this gap has widened slightly in 2024 (relative to 2023). The change of around one tenth of a grade only just met our criteria to be identified as notable. Over the period covered by the analysis, the gap has both widened and narrowed in different years, with a gradual narrowing between 2018 and2022, followed by widening in 2023 and 2024. Although the gap widened slightly in 2024, it remains narrower than in 2018 to 2021 in terms of both the average grade and the probability of obtaining a grade 7. The gap in terms of the probability of achieving a grade 4 remains narrower than in 2018 and 2019. It should also be noted that the category of independent centres is quite varied, for example, including private schools alongside city technology colleges. This includes independent special schools but excludes non-maintained special schools.

A level

At A level, the analysis looked at gaps across 3 outcome measures: average grade, the probability of attaining a grade C, and the probability of attaining a grade A. This year, no notable changes on all 3 outcome criteria were identified for any specific groups. This means that while some changes can be found for some specific groups on 1 or 2 of these measures, which is to be expected, there is an overall general picture of stability between 2023 and 2024.

Vocational and technical qualifications (VTQs)

VTQs have different structures and different grade scales, so the analysis focused on the probability of achieving the top grade, that is, the highest grade that can be achieved in each qualification.

For level 3 Applied Generals and Tech Level qualifications there were no notable changes to report this year.

For level 1 and 2 Technical Awards, taken at Key Stage 4, a notable change was identified for prior attainment. For these qualifications, the gap between students with very high prior attainment narrowed compared with students with medium prior attainment between 2023 and 2024. In other words, students with very high prior attainment are still more likely to obtain top grades than students with medium prior attainment, but this difference is smaller than it was in 2023.

For level 2 (and 1/2) Technical Certificates, usually taken post-16, there were notable changes relating to some groups with different ethnic backgrounds. For all the notable changes, the gap in 2024 was narrower than in 2023. The number of students contributing to this analysis is relatively small, however, and so these findings should be treated with caution.

Conclusion

This analysis shows that most attainment gaps have not changed significantly across GCSEs, A levels and the VTQs included in this analysis.

We observed only one notable change across all outcome measures involving a widening gap, which was the gap between GCSE students in independent schools versus academies. However, while this gap widened slightly in 2024 compared with 2023, it still however remains narrower than in pre-pandemic years.

We also observed a small number of notable changes involving a narrowing gap between some prior attainment and ethnicity groups in VTQs.

The picture of attainment gaps and how they change over time is a complex one. In reporting this, it is important to carefully consider the many factors at play, and how they interact. Societal differences and the residual impact of the pandemic on teaching and learning may have affected students differently, according to characteristics that we can observe, such as protected characteristics, socio-economic background, or ability profile. But there are also other characteristics that we cannot observe, such as motivation and parental support. And those effects may change at different points in time. This is why it is important to recognise the complexity of these findings.