GovWire

Over recent decades, global supply chains have grown in scale, speed, and complexity. They underpin modern commerce and are vital to the UKs prosperity and security. Recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, have highlighted that supply chains are complex systems, with many interdependencies, and are vulnerable to systemic shocks.

What shocks and trends might global supply chains face in the future and how might they change in response?

The Future of Global Supply Chains in the UK is a cross-government Foresight Project aiming to help decision-makers across HM Government build resilient supply chains and safeguard critical imports, using the latest analytical and scientific evidence to identify vulnerabilities and develop avenues to long-term resilience.

In detail, the Future of Global Supply Chains in the UK Foresight Project will:

• Provide a robust evidence base on the critical long-term uncertainties facing global supply chains.
• Develop coherent scenarios that consider plausible outcomes for these uncertainties and how they could interact, designed to help policy makers stress test specific supply chains.
• Stress test a diverse set of case study supply chains against the scenarios to help identify vulnerabilities, opportunities, and areas the UK may wish to take action to ensure future resilience.
• Use analysis and modelling to provide a quantitative approach to representing the scenarios and stress testing, which should provide additional evidence to support decisions.

A Foresight report bringing together these findings is planned for publication on GOV.UK in 2025.

For more information, please email foresight@go-science.gov.uk.