Office For National Statistics
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Excess deaths can be defined as the difference between the actual number of deaths in a particular period and the estimated number of deaths expected in that period. Expected deaths can be derived in a variety of ways for different purposes, which means that there may be different estimates of excess deaths published by different organisations and used for those specific purposes.
This document explains the major publications related to excess deaths in the UK. Details of the methodologies are published by individual organisations.
Producers and publishers of the main reports
The Office for National Statistics (ONS)is responsible for collecting, analysing and disseminating statistics about the UKs economy, society and population.As such,ONSproduces statistics related to the registration of life events which includes publication ofDeaths registered weekly in England and Wales. National Records of Scotland (NRS) and Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) are responsible for mortality outputs forScotlandandNorthern Ireland, respectively.
The Office for Health Improvement and Disparities (OHID)forms part of the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) and is responsible for work to improve the nations health and reduce health disparities.OHIDproduces the monthly publication Excess mortality within England: post-pandemic method.
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA)is responsible for surveillance of infectious diseases and other health related threats to the security of the nations health. UKHSAcurrently produces 3 excess mortality related products:Weekly all-cause mortality surveillance in England, Annual heat mortality monitoring in England and Annual surveillance of influenza and other seasonal respiratory viruses in the UK.
ONS reports
Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales
TheDeaths registered weekly in England and Walespublication includes estimates of excess all-cause mortality in England and Wales.
On 20 February 2024,ONSpublished a new method for measuring excess mortality that will allow national comparisons of excess deaths. In the future, the weekly publication will include numbers of death registrations and excess deaths for each of the 4 UK countries as well as the UK as a whole.Therefore, this publication will contain the headline figures for England and will be the most appropriate for making comparisons across each of the devolved administrations of the UK.
NRSandNISRAcurrently produce excess mortality figures forScotlandandNorthern Ireland, respectively, and have updated their methodology in line with that implemented byONS. This means a consistent method is used by all 4 nations, which enables comparisons at national level.
ONSs new methodology for estimating the expected number of deaths, which replaces the previous 5-year average approach, is closely aligned withOHIDs updated methodology described below. Both organisations publish estimates of excess deaths for England. Those produced byONSare consistent with estimates for other UK countries, while those produced byOHIDcan be disaggregated by local authorities within England (at present,ONSs new methodology permits only regional breakdowns in England).
OHID reports
Excess mortality within England: post-pandemic method
OHIDproducesmonthly estimates of excess mortalitywithin England.OHIDpublished this revised version of its reporton 20 February 2024. This new analysis and methodology will be aligned withONSs new method where possible.
Rather than measuring the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, the new approach provides a method for ongoing monitoring which includes an updated baseline period. These estimates represent the number of deaths above the number expected, based on trends in mortality over the previous 5 years instead of comparing to the pre-pandemic period. Further details are captured inChanges toOHIDs reporting of excess mortality in England (published alongside the report).
This publication is the most appropriate to use when comparing excess mortality within England.OHIDproduces breakdowns which show inequalities in levels of excess mortality, including by sex, age group and level of deprivation for the English regions and local authorities.OHIDs analysis by cause of death describes which causes are particularly contributing to excess deaths in specific time periods.
OHIDs monthly publication provides estimated numbers of excess deaths and the ratio of registered to expected deaths. Users can adjust the time periods presented, allowing cumulative estimates to be shown for specific periods.
UKHSA reports
Weekly all-cause mortality surveillance in England
All-cause mortality surveillance shows time periods when mortality levels were higher than expected, rather than providing an estimate of the number of actual or expected deaths. Theweekly all-cause mortality surveillance reportsare published every Thursday.
This publication includes details of the weeks in which observed deaths are higher than an expected threshold, which is calculated using a European-wide algorithm calledEuromomo. It includes a chart of observed and expected deaths by the date the death occurred across all ages in England. The chart also shows the upper limit for when the number of deaths is considered to be significantly high